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There are several different decisions general manager Billy Eppler and the New York Mets organization will need to make in the coming weeks and months. One part of that decision-making process will be what to do with the team’s own free agents. In total, the Mets have nine MLB free agents and seven of their own players with options they will have to make/await decisions on.
One of those seven is Carlos Carrasco. The veteran has a team option worth $14 million for the 2023 season. If the Mets decline the option, there will be a $3 million buyout. New York must make a decision on Carrasco within five days of the conclusion of the World Series.
Interesting to note, if Carrasco reached the 170-inning mark last season, an option would have automatically kicked in. Though, he only threw 152 innings, resulting in that vesting option becoming a team option. Now, the Mets have a decision to make.
Carrasco’s Queens’ Tenure
Acquired in the Francisco Lindor trade from Cleveland, it has been and up-and-down Mets’ tenure for the now 35-year-old veteran. During the 2021 campaign, Carrasco was woeful, pitching to a 6.04 ERA across 53 2/3 innings. His FIP of 5.22 and xERA of 4.69 further indicate it was a very poor first season in Queens for the right-handed starter. It was also a season marred with injury, as a torn right hamstring delayed the start of it. Then, after the season ended, Carrasco underwent surgery to remove a bone fragment from his elbow.
It was much smoother 2o22 for the Venezuelan, though, far from perfect. He was able to make 29 starts and throw 152 innings which are each the most he has posted since the 2018 season. The overall results were so-so as he went 15-7 while posting an ERA and xERA of 3.97 and 4.08, respectively. His FIP and xFIP of 3.53 and 3.45 are more impressive figures showing he may have been a bit better than he appeared to be on the surface.
Snippet via Baseball Savant.
Carrasco also did a good job limiting walks (72nd percentile in BB%), for the most important, and inducing swing-and-misses (65th percentile in whiff %) as well as generating opposing batters to chase (94th percentile in chase rate). The area he faltered was when opponents made contact, it was usually of the hard variety (32nd percentile in hard-hit rate) which usually resulted in the ball finding grass (29th percentile in xBA).
He was also inconsistent at points, as he went on runs throughout the season where he seemingly was untouchable (July 3rd through July 30th). Then there were runs where he was unable to get past five innings and got hit early and often (June 11th through June 28th). In all, it resulted in him being left off the postseason roster at year’s end struggling with getting deep into starts.
Analysis
At the end of the day, Carrasco’s 2022 season represented one of a good number-five starting pitcher or okay number four. At a price tag of $11 million ($14 million minus the $3-million buyout if not exercised), in today’s MLB, is not a far-fetched price to pay for a bottom-of-the-rotation guy. Though, with all that being said, you need to take in account a few things.
First off, Carrasco is aging and has a recent history of injury issues. As mentioned, to begin 2021 he missed a lot of time with a hamstring injury. Then, after the season, he got surgery on his elbow. He also missed three starts with an oblique issue last year. All said, last year was the first time Carrasco hit the 150-inning mark since 2018. From 2019 through 2021, he threw 201 2/3 innings. For some, that is a normal season of work.
Secondly, regression is a given during any normal pitcher’s age-36 season. The question will be how much? Carrasco’s numbers this past season were not bad overall, but in terms of his career numbers, off of his usual superb self. Add in another year of age, and potential injury issues, there is a lot of risk there of the regression being very steep. It is just hard to project.
Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Decision
The Mets have a ton of uncertainty entering the offseason. Namely, surrounding the bullpen, but also with their rotation. As it stands, Max Scherzer, David Peterson, and Tylor Megill are the three main starters with starter experience in the MLB under contract. Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker, along with Carrasco, are all are potential free agents.
The decision on Carrasco really comes down to what happens with deGrom, Bassitt, and Walker, with keeping in mind that the depth of the starting pitcher free agent market is not exactly robust. The Mets can lock down their fourth or fifth starting spot in the rotation, with risk of course, if they exercise Carrasco’s option. In doing so, at a reasonable price.
Though, if they can ensure the return of a deGrom and Bassitt and/or address a remaining hole with an external option, taking a risk on Carrasco would not be needed. Is there quality options out there that would be an immediate upgrade option over Carrasco? Sure. But, do the Mets just have too many holes in their roster, specifically the rotation, to not bring him back? Only time will tell.
